{"id":7060,"date":"2020-10-15T08:31:54","date_gmt":"2020-10-15T13:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.columbia.edu\/climatechange\/?p=7060"},"modified":"2023-02-28T10:40:46","modified_gmt":"2023-02-28T15:40:46","slug":"trump-v-the-climate-round-two-what-four-more-years-of-trump-might-mean-for-climate-regulation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.law.columbia.edu\/climatechange\/2020\/10\/15\/trump-v-the-climate-round-two-what-four-more-years-of-trump-might-mean-for-climate-regulation\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump v. The Climate, Round Two: What Four More Years of Trump Might Mean for Climate Regulation"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>

By Daniel J. Metzger and Romany M. Webb<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\u00a0 \u00a0President Trump meets with energy company executives in April 2020. Source: The White House.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Last week Vice President Pence expressed<\/a> how \u201cvery proud\u201d he is of the administration\u2019s environmental record and declared that, if re-elected, President Trump will \u201ctake care of our environment and follow the science.\u201d That would be a marked departure from the President\u2019s first term. As documented in the Silencing Science Tracker<\/a>, for nearly four years, President Trump and his\u00a0 administration have consistently censored, misrepresented, and stifled scientific research and discussion. Many of the administration\u2019s actions have targeted climate scientists, who have been removed from their positions<\/a>, prevented from publishing their research<\/a>, or had their findings misrepresented<\/a> or simply ignored<\/a> by officials. Instead of relying on science, the administration has turned to industry for advice<\/a>, and put their priorities first<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Many have assumed that if President Trump is re-elected he and his administration will continue with their pro-industry agenda. But what specific actions might that entail? The Trump campaign has not issued any position papers outlining its climate priorities. The President and several administration officials have, however, recently expressed views on climate change and on whether and how it should be addressed. Based on their statements and actions taken during President Trump\u2019s first term, we have identified eight energy and environmental policy objectives we believe are likely to be pursued if Trump is re-elected:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

1. Continued Support for Fossil Fuel Production<\/strong>: Increasing domestic production of fossil fuels, particularly oil and natural gas, has been a key goal of the Trump administration over the last four years. The administration has framed<\/a> increasing oil and natural gas production as important for both economic and national security reasons, with the Department of Energy (DOE) last year branding<\/a> the fuels \u201cmolecules of U.S. freedom,\u201d and more recently describing<\/a> them as \u201cproviding energy security and supporting our quality of life.\u201d DOE and other federal agencies have often called natural gas a \u201cclean\u201d fossil fuel, when in fact it is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Department of the Interior (DOI) recently finalized rules that weaken controls on methane emissions from oil and natural gas production. While those rules were swiftly challenged in court, if President Trump is reelected, they will no doubt be vigorously defended by the Department of Justice. Even if the rules are struck down, we can expect EPA and DOI to \u201creturn to the drawing board,\u201d and develop new rules to the same effect.<\/p>\n

Federal agencies are also likely to explore additional regulatory changes to support oil and natural gas production. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette recently told<\/a> a meeting of top oil and gas company executives that the administration is exploring \u201cevery tool\u201d available. Ideas previously floated by the administration include opening new areas of federal land and\/or the outer continental shelf<\/a> for oil and natural gas production, reducing the royalties<\/a> payable in respect of production in such areas (e.g., by changing the rules governing how production is valued), and waiving compliance with regulations<\/a> governing the design and operation of production sites in such areas. The administration is also looking at ways to increase demand for domestically-produced oil and natural gas. In March this year, EPA and the Department of Transportation finalized its so-called Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient Vehicles (SAFE) Rule<\/a>, which relaxes fuel economy and tailpipe carbon dioxide emissions standards for light-duty vehicles. More recently, DOE has begun purchasing<\/a> large amounts of domestic oil, reportedly<\/a> to help shore-up prices amid declining demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and is looking at regulatory changes<\/a> that would facilitate the export of domestic natural gas.<\/p>\n

2. Support for Coal-Fired Electricity Generation<\/strong>: Secretary Brouillette recently described<\/a> the Trump administration\u2019s policy with respect to electricity generation as \u201cregulating less\u201d to enable industry to \u201cinnovate more.\u201d Nevertheless, over the last four years, the administration has sought to promote conventional forms of generation (e.g., fossil fuels and nuclear) over more innovative technologies (e.g., renewables and storage). The administration has gone to particularly great lengths to prop-up coal-fired generation, which has declined markedly<\/a> in recent years. While research<\/a> shows that the decline was primarily due to economic factors (principally reductions in the cost of natural gas and renewable generation), President Trump has blamed<\/a> environmental regulations, such as the Clean Power Plan<\/a> adopted under President Obama. In 2019, Trump\u2019s EPA rescinded<\/a> the Clean Power Plan and replaced it with a much weaker Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) Rule, which is now the subject of litigation. Again, if President Trump is reelected, the Department of Justice will no doubt vigorously defend the ACE rule. The administration may also take other steps to support coal-fired generation, for example, through changes to the rules governing wholesale electricity markets. DOE and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission have already taken some steps in this regard and might look to do more in a second Trump term.<\/p>\n

3. Support for Nuclear Generation: <\/strong>It is also likely that the Trump administration will take steps to support nuclear generation. Secretary Brouillette recently made several public statements in support of nuclear generation and criticized proposals<\/a> to restrict its use. On at least one occasion, Secretary Brouillette argued<\/a> that nuclear generation should be preferred over renewable generation because, in his view, \u201c[r]enewables by themselves cannot ensure the reliable flow of electricity.\u201d<\/p>\n

4. Continued Hostility Toward Renewable Generation:<\/strong> Throughout his first term President Trump has repeatedly made statements questioning the efficacy of renewable generation and touting the superiority of fossil fuels. The President\u2019s wide-ranging statements include, for example ones arguing that windmills \u201care not working all that well<\/a>\u201d; that the noise they create causes cancer<\/a>; and tweeting<\/a> that \u201cthe monstrosities are ruining landscapes.\u201d EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler has also been critical<\/a> of renewable generation, recently erroneously blaming the August blackouts in California on policies that seek to \u201cpush more renewables onto the grid.\u201d And DOE Secretary Brouillette recently reaffirmed<\/a> that \u201cthe United States is abandoning none of our fuels, and not one iota of economic opportunity, in the quest for a clean energy world.\u201d It seems likely, then, that renewable generators would receive little support during a second Trump term.<\/p>\n

5. Supplanting Carbon Capture and Storage for Emissions Reductions:<\/strong> Secretary Brouillette has endorsed<\/a> taking steps to get carbon capture technologies \u201coff the shelf\u201d and into the market. To that end, on September 1, 2020 DOE announced<\/a> $72 million in funding for research into carbon capture technologies, of which $21 million was earmarked for direct air capture. That is an important step because many researchers agree<\/a> that, to avoid climate catastrophe, we must both reduce future greenhouse gas emissions and remove previously emitted gases from the atmosphere. However, the Trump administration has indicated that it views carbon capture as a substitute for, not a complement to, eliminating the use of fossil fuels. Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy Steven Winberg confirmed that<\/a> these grants support the \u201cprimary purpose\u201d of DOE\u2019s Office of Fossil Energy: \u201cto ensure that the United States can continue to rely on its fossil fuel resources.\u201d<\/p>\n

6. Opposition to Energy Efficiency Measures:<\/strong> Loosening and removing energy efficiency standards has been a regular subject of President Trump\u2019s attention throughout his first term. Last year, for example, the President took aim<\/a> at lightbulb efficiency standards by arguing that, apparently relative to incandescent lamps, a newer lightbulb is \u201cmany times more expensive\u00a0.\u00a0.\u00a0. [and] it gives you an orange look.\u201d At his confirmation hearing, Secretary Brouillette promised<\/a> that DOE will \u201cstop the insanity\u201d and \u201callow consumers to buy the lightbulbs they would like to buy rather than the ones Washington would like you to buy.\u201d<\/p>\n

DOE has already finalized a determination<\/a> limiting the lightbulbs subject to energy efficiency standards and lessening the stringency of those standards. It has similarly undone energy efficiency standards that relate to other types of lighting<\/a> and proposed changing the standards for appliances, such as dishwashers<\/a>, heaters, furnaces, and boilers<\/a>. Assuming the administration continues the same trajectory, we can expect to see these proposals finalized and may see additional, comparable energy efficiency standard rollbacks. Moreover, we should not expect to see energy efficiency standards\u00a0for the many types of appliances that do not currently have such standards.<\/p>\n

7. Restraining Environment-Focused States:<\/strong> Statements and actions by President Trump and administration officials suggest they may take steps to reign in states that want to go further than the federal government to address climate change. Last year, for example, EPA promulgated<\/a> the first part of the \u201cSAFE Rule,\u201d which withdrew California\u2019s Clean Air Act preemption waiver, limiting California\u2019s authority to set standards more stringent than the federal standards.<\/p>\n

Going forward, the administration may seek to restrict states\u2019 environmental actions in other ways. In a recent address<\/a> at the Nixon Presidential Library EPA Administrator Wheeler expressed frustration with state actions that prioritize environmental goals at the perceived expense of economics. \u201cIt\u2019s very disappointing to see governors on the East Coast, such as Governor Cuomo, unilaterally block pipelines\u201d Wheeler noted, adding that there are \u201cmany examples of poor environmental outcomes here in California, despite its environmental reputation.\u201d Wheeler added that in the wake of the administration\u2019s changes to NEPA regulations \u201cnew permit bottlenecks will be at State-level agencies implementing federal program[s].\u201d On their own, Administrator Wheeler\u2019s comments say little about what specific steps the administration may take, but they suggest a continued desire to limit individual states\u2019 discretion to lead on climate regulation.<\/p>\n

8. Undermining Science-Based Regulation: <\/strong>Finally, and critically, we expect a re-elected President Trump and his administration to continue taking steps to reduce the role of science in agency decision making.<\/p>\n

Restricting, ignoring, and reframing scientific research has been a hallmark<\/a> of President Trump\u2019s first term, and the pace and consistency of the administration\u2019s actions suggest that a second term would bring more of the same. In Administrator Wheeler\u2019s address<\/a> at the Nixon Presidential Library he described two pathways the administration is looking to use to further subordinate science to economic priorities. He noted that the agency is working on a series of new cost benefit-regulations that will apply to every rule the agency proposes. The first, which would apply to rules adopted under the Clean Air Act, was proposed<\/a> last year and could significantly limit consideration of co-benefits when developing standards under the Act. Administrator Wheeler committed to having similar regulations \u201cfor all our environmental statutes [finalized] by 2020.\u201d Wheeler also noted the so-called \u201cScience Transparency Rule,\u201d which critics have argued<\/a> will prevent the agency from considering epidemiological studies\u2014long one important basis for air and water pollution standards\u2014that rely on confidential patient data. In a next term, the Trump administration could use either of these pathways to justify climate policy that is out of step with scientific consensus.<\/p>\n

As well as acting on above policy objectives, if re-elected, the Trump administration will likely use the next four years to advance other climate- and environment-related regulatory actions it has proposed but not yet finalized (e.g., its proposals to weaken controls on greenhouse gas emissions from landfills<\/a> and reduce penalties for automobile manufacturers that fail to meet fuel economy standards<\/a>). The Trump administration could also use the next four years to correct procedural and other errors that have resulted in its final regulatory actions being struck down by the courts. As our colleagues Michael Gerrard and Jessica Wentz wrote<\/a> last year, the courts have invalidated various Trump administration actions for failure to comply with the requirements of the Administrative Procedure Act, National Environmental Policy Act, and other statutes. Another four years would give the Trump administration time to try again.<\/p>\n

For a full list of actions taken by the Trump administration to weaken or eliminate federal climate protections, visit the Sabin Center\u2019s Climate Deregulation Tracker<\/a>. Our recent report\u2014Climate Reregulation in a Biden Administration<\/a>\u2014outlines steps that a Biden administration could take to repair and rebuild the federal climate governance framework. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

By Daniel J. Metzger and Romany M. Webb Last week Vice President Pence expressed how \u201cvery proud\u201d he is of the administration\u2019s environmental record and declared that, if re-elected, President Trump will \u201ctake care of our environment and follow the science.\u201d That would be a marked departure from the President\u2019s first term. As documented in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1889,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5673],"tags":[65701,65726],"class_list":{"0":"post-7060","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-litigation","7":"tag-climate-deregulation","8":"tag-u-s-climate-policy","9":"czr-hentry"},"yoast_head":"\nTrump v. 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Webb Last week Vice President Pence expressed how \u201cvery proud\u201d he is of the administration\u2019s environmental record and declared that, if re-elected, President Trump will \u201ctake care of our environment and follow the science.\u201d That would be a marked departure from the President\u2019s first term. 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