{"id":56,"date":"2009-12-20T16:20:44","date_gmt":"2009-12-20T21:20:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.law.columbia.edu\/climatechange\/?p=56"},"modified":"2012-01-31T15:43:01","modified_gmt":"2012-01-31T20:43:01","slug":"copenhagen-report-saturday-december-20-2009","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.law.columbia.edu\/climatechange\/2009\/12\/20\/copenhagen-report-saturday-december-20-2009\/","title":{"rendered":"Copenhagen Report: Saturday, December 20, 2009"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>
\"Courtsey<\/a>
A Copenhagen factory surrounded by wind turbines. Courtesy Dept. of Energy & Climate Change<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

My last blog was written shortly after midnight on Thursday.\u00a0 Here are my observations concerning Friday and Saturday.<\/p>\n

Friday was a day of high drama and muddled results.\u00a0 As the workday began (and many committees were continuing their sleepless drafting, amid a backdrop of radically fluctuating expectations that by turns made people think this would be remembered as Hopenhagen or Nopenhagen), Danish television was trained on the convoy of vehicles that would take President Obama to the Bella Center as soon as Air Force One landed.\u00a0 The landing took place around 9 a.m., and the President was immediately taken to a meeting of world leaders.\u00a0 Notably absent was Premier Wen Jiabao of China, the country that arguably was holding the best cards; he sent a vice minister.\u00a0 Shortly thereafter Premier Wen and President Obama (in that order) gave fairly tough speeches, each somewhat aimed at the other.\u00a0 Other speechmaking persisted.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the NGOs were almost completely shut out of the Bella Center, whose registration chaos earlier in the week left little faith in the ability of the UN bureaucracy to administer anything too complicated.\u00a0 Some of those who remained went to a small, somewhat run-down convention center near the central train station (sharing its block with a bowling alley) that had been transformed into Klimaforum09, a student and activist center that on Friday was mostly occupied by fully-bundled young people working on their laptops in long rows on tables or sitting on the floor; looking at the stacks of literature left on most remaining surfaces; and attending programs and meditation sessions.\u00a0 It was a far cry from the carbon traders at the Crowne Plaza.<\/p>\n

Back at Bella Center, a\u00a0 few hours after these two major speeches, the leaders of China, India, Brazil and South Africa were holding a private meeting.\u00a0 President Obama heard about the meeting and basically barged in. (I didn\u2019t believe the reports until I saw a video, taken from outside the door, showing him in mid-barge.)\u00a0 Still photos have been published of the leaders around a table; a big prize goes to whomever can produce a transcript of the meeting. That session led to a political agreement that was released later in the evening. Around midnight President Obama held a press conference summarizing the agreement and answering a few questions.\u00a0 With respect to the domestically-crucial question of monitoring, reporting and verification of China\u2019s fulfillment of its commitments, he — sounding every bit the scripted \u00a0lawyer — said they would be subject to \u201cinternational consultation and analysis.\u201d\u00a0 Then he explained he needed to dash to the airport ahead of the huge snowstorm that was bearing down on Washington.\u00a0 It sounded like there was a done deal.<\/p>\n

The COP15 plenary session continued overnight to debate what instantly became known as the \u201cCopenhagen Accord.\u201d\u00a0\u00a0 Thereupon a dark cloud of parliamentary confusion suffused the room.\u00a0 A couple of days earlier the chair of the conference, Connie Hedegaard, the Danish climate minister, had been replaced at the \u00a0gavel by her boss, Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen. (The circumstances of that transfer are still much in doubt.)\u00a0 Mr. Rasmussen no doubt has many virtues, but mastery of running UN meetings does not appear to be one of them.\u00a0 Clear voting rules had never been adopted under the UNFCCC, and he took the view that its mandate for decisions by \u201cconsensus\u201d meant they must be unanimous.\u00a0 With 193 countries participating, that is quite a challenge. (As observers of the U.S. Senate and the New York State Senate have seen, the need for unanimity in a body, or in a caucus that has exactly as many votes as it needs to prevail, gives everyone veto power and thus leads to assured chaos.) The representatives of Bolivia, Venezuela, Cuba, Nicaragua and the Sudan (and possibly a couple of others) rose to object that the agreement was too weak.\u00a0 Even if that would make it 188 to 5, it was enough opposition, in the view of Prime Minister Rasumussen, to block inclusion of the Copenhagen Accord in the formal decision documents of the conference.\u00a0 After much more tense debate, it was decided that the final document would \u201ctake note\u201d of the Accord.\u00a0 The conference finally adjourned on Saturday.<\/p>\n

Many people (including myself) are now looking through the documents and trying to figure out just what they mean.\u00a0 But it is clear that the Conference achieved neither the universally accepted binding legal agreement that would have assured a dramatic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (and perhaps have denoted a return of the Age of Miracles), nor a complete breakdown (though without President Obama\u2019s already-legendary storming of a meeting to which he was not invited, that might have happened).\u00a0 Much, much process lies ahead. By January 31, 2010, the major economies (including, very significantly, China, India and Brazil) will have to submit their mitigation commitments, and the developing countries (except the poorest) will have to submit their lists of nationally appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs).\u00a0 A \u201cquick start\u201d package of about $30\u00a0 billion will be provided for adaptation efforts in the poor countries, to be followed by the $100 billion\/year previously announced by Secretary of State Clinton.\u00a0 Innumerable meetings will be held, much jet fuel will be consumed, and we do it all over again a year from now in Mexico City.\u00a0 Major fights lie ahead about whether the measures agreed to will succeed in meeting the developed countries\u2019 goal of keeping future increases in global temperature to two degrees Celsius; whether achieving even that goal will be sufficient to prevent catastrophic damage in some of the most vulnerable countries; and many other issues.\u00a0 It is also highly uncertain whether the Conference\u2019s results will make the U.S. Senate more or less likely to approve U.S. legislation.<\/p>\n

Walking around Copenhagen on Saturday and Sunday, I saw a somewhat different city.\u00a0 Most of the exhibits that were around town had been packed into large trucks.\u00a0 Police and soldiers were far less visible. Copenhagen\u2019s terrific network of pedestrian-only streets, which criss-cross the downtown area, were thronged with Danish Christmas shoppers. (Prices and exchange rates are such that this is no place for Americans to shop.)\u00a0 \u00a0The Danes showed their wonderful ability to bicycle in the snow. A silvery trailer was emblazed with the words \u201cBrad Pitt is Saving Planet Earth in Copenhagen,\u201d but that turns out to be linked to a Brad Pitt lookalike contest. But evidence of the conference remained at the city\u2019s most recognizable symbol, the sculpture of the Little Mermaid (in honor of Denmark\u2019s most famous author, Hans Christian Andersen, who wrote a story of that name).\u00a0 To her left is an ice sculpture of a penguin, which is just fine with the tour guides. But to her right is a temporarily-installed \u00a0sculpture of an obese woman being carried on the back of a starved African man, a clear commentary on the proceedings by the sculptor Jens Galschiot.<\/p>\n

Another of the city\u2019s leading tourist attractions is the Rundetaarn, or Round Tower — a massive cylindrical brick building with an observatory on top. Most of the interior space is taken up by a ramp that is so wide and tall that over the centuries it fulfilled its design purpose of allowing various kings, queens and visiting tsars and tsarinas to ride horse drawn carriages to the top.\u00a0 Today, from the top, one of the city\u2019s highest perches, when looking to the northeast one sees four tall smokestacks spewing large plumes into the atmosphere, but behind them is a long row of new wind turbines.\u00a0 This persistence of the old and introduction of the new is a perfect metaphor for the conference.<\/p>\n

(This is the last of my blogs from Copenhagen.\u00a0 If you would like to be on the list to receive further updates but aren\u2019t already, please send a note to cullen.howe@aporter.com<\/a>.)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

My last blog was written shortly after midnight on Thursday.\u00a0 Here are my observations concerning Friday and Saturday. Friday was a day of high drama and muddled results.\u00a0 As the workday began (and many committees were continuing their sleepless drafting, amid a backdrop of radically fluctuating expectations that by turns made people think this would […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":331,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5671],"tags":[410,5664],"class_list":{"0":"post-56","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","6":"category-international","7":"tag-copenhagen","8":"tag-climate-negotiations","9":"czr-hentry"},"yoast_head":"\nCopenhagen Report: Saturday, December 20, 2009 - Climate Law Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.law.columbia.edu\/climatechange\/2009\/12\/20\/copenhagen-report-saturday-december-20-2009\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Copenhagen Report: Saturday, December 20, 2009 - Climate Law Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"My last blog was written shortly after midnight on Thursday.\u00a0 Here are my observations concerning Friday and Saturday. 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